In modern society, transport plays a key role in the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. The criminal situation in the modern Russian society, is an integral part of the socio-economic situation, determined by this environment and has a negative impact on all spheres of social life. This, of course, determines the relevance of criminological analysis and forecasting of crime on transport. A feature of the social life of the country and its separate regions is the dynamic nature of current processes that poses the natural question, in what direction they will undergo changes, what are the forces that will promote or inhibit. Equally this provision applies to crime. It is subject to the same changes, as all phenomena of social life, and therefore there is a necessity criminological forecasting, foresight criminogenic consequences of these changes. Scientific criminological prediction comes from the modern state of the studied phenomena, the characteristics of which will undergo changes in the future. It is not based on the fact that it is desirable to subject forecasting, and that objectively derived from the development of the phenomenon, its past and present. Criminological forecasting is a scientific character only when based on knowledge of the trends and patterns of crime, as well as diverse and interrelated processes affecting it, on the use of scientifically-based research methods.
transport crime, the criminal situation, criminological forecasting, probabilistic prognostic conclusions the dynamics of the crime
1. Zamylin E. I. Kriminalisticheskoe prognozirovanie v processe obespecheniya bezopasnosti lic, sodeystvuyuschih ugolovnomu sudoproizvodstvu // Vestnik Volgogradskoy akademii MVD Rossii. 2009. № 1. S. 40-47.
2. Statistika i analitika [Elektronnyy resurs] // Oficial'nyy sayt Ministerstva vnutrennih del Rossiyskoy Federacii: [sayt]. URL: https://mvd.ru/Deljatelnost/statistics (data obrascheniya: 02.02.2015).
3. Inshakov S. M. Kriminologicheskoe prognozirovanie prestupnosti: nauchnyy doklad / Akademiya General'noy prokuratury RF, Nauchno-issledovatel'skiy institut. M., 2010.
4. Zheludkov M. A. Obosnovanie realizacii sistemnyh zaschitnyh mer v mehanizme preduprezhdeniya korystnoy prestupnosti // Vestnik Volgogradskoy akademii MVD Rossii. 2014. № 4. S. 47-51.
